International trade

Seasonally adjusted world export volumes increased by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 1.2% growth in the previous quarter.

In developing economies, export growth turned negative, with export volumes declining by 0.5%, compared with an increase of 1.0% in the first quarter of 2026.

In developed economies, export growth remained broadly stable, at 1.1% in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 1.2% in the previous quarter.

In 2025, Europe had the most diversified export structure by product, as indicated by an export product concentration index of 0.06, whereas Western Asia and Northern Africa (0.26) recorded the most concentrated export structure by product. Oceania (0.24) and Sub-Saharan Africa (0.21) also exhibited relatively concentrated export structures. At the economy level, South Sudan (0.99), Sint Maarten (0.93), Kiribati (0.89), Nauru (0.87) and Micronesia (0.85) showed the lowest degree of export diversification.

Over the last 20 years, manufactured products have been showing the highest concentration of exports by economy of origin. In 2025, that market concentration index of exports  stood at 0.20. Fuels and the group of ores, metals, precious stones and non-monetary gold ranked second and third, with index values of 0.15, with the latter showing a significant increase in market concentration compared with the previous year. Since 2011, food has been the product group with the most geographically dispersed exports, with a steady decline in market concentration, with an index score of 0.12 in 2025.

For the 2022–2024 average, Least Developed Countries (LDCs) recorded an overall Theil export concentration index of 5.14, well above 3.26 for other developing economies and 2.89 for developed economies. Higher Theil concentration indicates that LDCs' exports are less diversified than other countries.

Decomposition of the index shows that market concentration is the main driver of this pattern. LDCs’ market concentration index reached 3.27, compared with 2.27 in other developing economies and 2.08 in developed economies, indicating a strong reliance on a limited number of destination markets. Product concentration is also markedly higher in LDCs (1.87) than elsewhere (0.99 and 0.81), reflecting dependence on a narrow range of export products.

Overall, LDCs face a double diversification gap, across both products and markets, leaving their export earnings more exposed to external shocks.

In 2025, the strongest improvement of terms of trade was recorded in Least Developed Countries (3.8%) and in developing economies Africa (3%), indicating more favorable export-import price dynamics compared to the previous year. Developed economies experienced 1.1% improvement of their terms of trade too.

In contrast, developing economies Asia and Oceania, and developing economies America saw a decline of their terms of trade by -1.4% and -0.3% respectively, resulting in an overall -1% deterioration in Developing economies terms of trade from 2024.

An improvement in the terms of trade means a country can obtain more imports for the same amount of exports, effectively increasing its real income and reducing economic strain.