UNCTAD’s nowcasts are data and model-based predictions of global trade and GDP period over period growth. The latest data available and data revisions are fed into models on a weekly basis to update and revise the nowcasts and provide insight on current economic and trade conditions well before final figures are published with several months’ delay.
The trade nowcasts represent quarter-over-quarter growth rates of seasonally adjusted series while the GDP nowcast represents year-over-year growth rates. The nowcast is one of multiple approaches and tools UNCTAD employs to provide insight to the development of global trade and economic output, in this case solely based on a set of high frequency statistics available at each point in time.
The points on the graph represent what growth rate the model predicted for the selected time period with data available on the date indicated on the X-axis. The bars represent that week’s data releases’ impact on the evolution of the nowcast. See the “METHODOLOGY” tab for more information on how to read this plot.
For more details on the methodology and underlying indicators, see the research paper on Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM).